Kim Knowlton¹, Joyce Rosenthal², Cynthia Rosenzweig³, Richard Goldberg³, Barry Lynn³, Stuart Gaffin³, William Solecki⁴, Charles Oliveri⁵, Jennifer Cox⁶, Christopher Small⁷, Christian Hogrefe⁸, Kevin Civerolo⁹, Michael J.-Y. Ku⁹, and Patrick L. Kinney, ScD¹⁰. (1) Mailman School of Public Health, Dept of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, B-1, New York, NY 10032, 212-305-3464, kmk47@columbia.edu, (2) Mailman School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, B-1, New York, NY 10032, (3) NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, (4) Geography Department, Hunter College-CUNY, 695 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10021, (5) Montclair State University, 1 Normal Ave., Upper Montclair, NJ 07043, (6) Regional Plan Association, 4 Irving Place, 7th floor, New York, NY 10003, (7) Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, 108 Oceanography, Palisades, NY 10964, (8) Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, 251 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, (9) Bureau of Air Research, NY State Dept of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233, (10) Division of Environmental Health Sciences, Joseph L. Mailman School of Public Health of Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, B-1, New York, NY 10032

Global climate change is projected to continue through this century, and resulting higher summer temperatures are expected to increase episodic heat stress and ambient ozone concentrations. In many metropolitan regions, these two health stressors already pose risks to vulnerable sub-populations that include people 65 years and older, families living in poverty, and homes without air conditioners. To date, the public health impacts of climate change have been projected at global or continental scales, but seldom at regional or local scales relevant to public health infrastructure planning. The objective of this study is to apply an integrated climate change impact assessment model, developed by the New York Climate and Health Project, in order to identify those local communities that may experience the greatest health impacts from a changing climate in the next 20 to 50 years. We hypothesize that the local impacts of global climate change will vary appreciably depending upon factors such as age, economic status, and location of residence within the highly diverse 31-county New York metropolitan region. In particular, because New York City is home to many new immigrants (36% foreign-born in Census 2000) who may be underserved by the health care system and for whom built-environment adaptations like air conditioning may be economically unfeasible, the near-future health impacts of climate change are cause for concern. This downscaling of specific mortality and morbidity projections to the neighborhood level can help target local efforts to mitigate or adapt to the effects of a changing climate.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, the participant will be able to

• Describe the process by which climate model projections are applied to health risk assessment.
• Construct criteria for identifying urban and non-urban populations and communities potentially most vulnerable to climate-related changes.
• Discuss four types of targeted local efforts that can be taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change.

Keywords: Climate Change, Vulnerable Populations

Related Web page: www.cumc.columbia.edu/dept/sph/ehs/NYCHP1.html

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.