Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #122219

Justin Lessler, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, 410-502-4566, jlessler@jhsph.edu

Stochastic simulations provide a method for understanding past outbreaks of disease and making predictions about future ones. While many of the models that have recieved attention are ambitious in their intent and scope, smaller more focused models can still be informative and useful. Using my own experiences modeling the 1976 outbreak of Swine Flu at Fort Dix New Jersey I will present an overview of the modeling process, focusing on the formulation of appropraite questions and potential pitfalls in the modeling process.

Learning Objectives: Viewers will

• Learn the basics of stochastic simulation
• Be able to appreciate problems involved in ing swine flu outbreaks

Keywords: Statistics,

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Not Answered