Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #122302

Amy Hagopian, MHA, PhD, University of Washington, Box 354982, 4311 11th Ave, NE, Seattle, WA 98195-4982, 206-616-4989, hagopian@u.washington.edu and Mark A. Micek, MD, MPH, International Health Program, Department of Health Services, University of Washington, Box 354809, Seattle, WA 98195.

OBJECTIVE: to describe a health workforce planning model to use in the setting of poor countries attempting to implement large-scale HIV/AIDS treatment programs.

ABSTRACT: Countries across the globe are attempting to implement large-scale AIDS treatment programs, often in the setting of highly constrained resources. Arguably, the most important consideration in planning such programs is the need for health professionals, ranging from support staff to nurses and physicians. How do planners guess how many they will need at each stage as they grow their programs?

The authors have used the Mozambique scale-up to begin to design a workforce projection planning model. The model they will present offers three ways to calculate projections: 1) numbers of patients enrolled per month for HIV treatment (whether they are ready for anti-retroviral therapy or not), or 2) numbers of patients enrolled now, and the number we hope to enroll at the end of two years, or 3) numbers of patients placed on anti-retroviral therapy (independent of the total number enrolled for care).

Eight different categories of health workers are included in the model, including three types of physicians, two kinds of nurses, social workers, pharmacists, and patient advocates and trackers called “activistas.”

Four inter-connected Excel™ spreadsheets are used for the model. They build on each other, but are simple to understand. The assumptions underlying the model can easily be adjusted, and the consequences of any adjustment in assumptions play out automatically across the spreadsheets.

The models are still being refined, and the authors welcome a discussion about their strengths and weaknesses.

Learning Objectives:

• 1. Explain how health service demand models could be constructed for practical planning purposes;
• 2. Articulate how to project demand for patient care visits from a population, based on WHO and country-level standards of care;
• 3. Extrapolate from a demand model to project numbers of health workers needed to implement a scaled-up HIV/AIDS treatment program.

Keywords: Developing Countries, Workforce

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Not Answered