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Abstract #155023

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Thomas Stopka, MHS¹, Fred Molitor, PhD², and Juan Ruiz, MD, DrPH². (1) Epidemiologic Studies Section, California Department of Health Services, Office of AIDS, P.O. Box 997426, MS 7700, 1616 Capitol Ave., Sacramento, CA 95899-7426, 916-449-5828, tstopka@dhs.ca.gov, (2) Office of AIDS, California Department of Health Services, PO Box 997426/MS-7700, Sacramento, CA 95899

Background: Health departments typically depend on HIV/AIDS Surveillance data to monitor the HIV/AIDS epidemic. New HIV estimation software permits systematic assessment of concentrated epidemics. The goal of this study was to estimate HIV prevalence among men and women aged 15-49 years in California.

Methods: The WHO/UNAIDS Workbook Method was used to estimate and project adult HIV prevalence. U.S. Census data were used to obtain age and gender-specific estimates for California populations. Population and HIV prevalence estimates for MSM, MSM-IDUs, IDUs, and low-risk heterosexuals were obtained from published articles, results of a statewide meeting of HIV/AIDS researchers, and the CDHS Office of AIDS. Numbers of HIV-positive men and women were estimated for each at-risk group and then aggregated. Low and high HIV prevalence estimates were calculated.

Results: Nearly 18 million adults aged 15-49 lived in California in 2006. The estimated number of persons living with HIV in the state was between 54,883 and 205,916 (mean=119,197). HIV prevalence was 0.67%. More than 90% of infections were among men. The largest number of persons with HIV across California were MSM (45,000 to 162,000), MSM-IDUs (5,000 to 22,500) and IDUs (1,800 to 12,500).

Conclusions: HIV prevalence estimates for California, using the WHO/UNAIDS Workbook Method, provide an enhanced understanding of the statewide HIV/AIDS epidemic. Estimation techniques may be particularly useful for public health jurisdictions and regions that do not yet have well established HIV/AIDS surveillance systems. A unique advantage of the estimation software is that it allows for systematic forecasting of future HIV/AIDS trends.

Learning Objectives:

• Discuss the software used and the data sources and inputs required to calculate HIV prevalence estimates.
• Describe the procedures utilized to calculate HIV prevalence estimates and trend forecasts.
• Analyze results from the Califoria HIV estimation model and describe other applications of the methodology.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Surveillance

Related Web page: www.dhs.ca.gov/AIDS

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Any relevant financial relationships? No
Any institutionally-contracted trials related to this submission?

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.

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