Future ground level ozone and pediatric asthma events in New York City

Of the predicted climate change effects, increased ground-level ozone (‘ozone') resulting from warmer temperatures has the most potential to impact outdoor air quality. Climate change effects, compounded by the urban heat island effect, place the New York City metropolitan area at risk for increasing ozone as compared to rural areas. Numerous studies have linked negative respiratory health effects to ozone. Asthmatic children are a population considered especially at risk of having their disease morbidity increased by the predicted increase in ozone. No studies have examined the relationship between children's respiratory health and predicted climate change effects on ozone.

This project involves modeling predicted changes in pediatric asthma morbidity based on various climate change scenarios for several summers of the 2050s decade. Baseline data for this study will be obtained from hospital admission data collected by New York State. The dose-response relationship of ground-level ozone to pediatric asthma admissions is derived from previous epidemiologic studies. The future temperature and ozone predictions are derived from a downscaled climate model for the New York City metropolitan area created by the New York Climate and Health Project.

The findings of this study based on climate prediction models include increased risk of pediatric asthma events from increased ground level ozone levels. Despite predicted increased temperatures, opportunities exist for future ozone precursor mitigation via industry emission controls or traffic regulation. These forecasts will be modeled using best and worse case scenarios.