5141.0: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 - 12:50 PM

Abstract #23473

Generalized Poisson modeling of automobile accidents involving elderly drivers

John T. Wulu1, Felix Famoye2, Karan P. Singh3, and Gerald McGwin3. (1) Office of Data, Evaluation, Analysis & Research, Bureau of Primary Health Care, HRSA/DHHS, 4350 East West Highway, 7th floor, Bethesda, MD 20814, 301-594-3730, jwulu@hrsa.gov, (2) Central Michigan University, 48859, (3) Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Ryals Building 327, 1665 University Boulevard, Birmingham, AL 35294-0022

A total of 901 drivers aged 65 years or older were randomly selected from the Alabama Department of Public Safety records. The number of accidents involving elderly drivers, demographic information, driving habits, and medication use were recorded for each subject. Elderly drivers who rate their quality of driving as average or belo significantly contributed (about 58.9%) to the number of automobile accidents. Nearly 59.2% of elderly males are involved in automobile crashes. Drivers who take calcium channel blockers show a significantly reduced risk of about 34.5% of involvement in automobile crashes. The parameter estimates from the PR and GPR models are quite similar. Accounting for the equi-dispersion, standard errors for the PR model are underestimated. Consequently, the Wald t ratio for testing the significance of each regression parameter is upward biased for the Poisson regression. Based on the dispersion parameter and the goodness-of-fit measure for the data, the GPR model performs better than the PR model.

Learning Objectives: To assess the effects of demographic factors, driving habits, and medication use on elderly drivers involved in automobile accidents; to use Poisson regression and generalized Poisson regression models to identify relationship between covariates and the number of automobile accidents involving elderly drivers.

Keywords: Elderly,

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.

The 129th Annual Meeting of APHA