RATIONALE. Since 1988, California has reduced smoking prevalence by 27% and cigarettes sold per adult by 45%. The size, timing, equitability, and other benefits of subsequent lung cancer reductions will be quantified and contrasted with other states and countries. METHODS. Age-standardized state or country-specific lung cancer death rates (rates) were obtained from wonder.cdc.gov and similar databases for 1979-1997. We estimated the annual % gap (=(1-CA rate/contrasting entity rate), averaged the % gaps for 1979-97, and t-tested whether the 1997 % gap was larger than the 1979-1996 average gap. Lives lost, early widowhoods, and early terminal cares costs due to not paralleling California's lung cancer declines are equal to ((year-specific % gap - 1988% gap)*year-specific deaths in the contrasted entity), times .6/death to estimate widowhoods and $60,000/death to estimate early terminal care costs. RESULTS. From 1988-97, CA lung cancer rates fell from 9% to 19% below the remaining US, a gap far higher (p<.1) than historic averages. Had remaining US rates fallen like California's, over 60,000 cumulative lung cancer deaths, 35,000 early widowhoods, and $3 billion in early terminal care costs would have been averted. most US states and other countries examined to date have similar, though lower absolute number, increasing lung cancer death excesses vs. California from 1988-97. California lung cancer rate declines were highest in blacks in absolute terms and in younger age groups in % terms. CONCLUSIONS. California's rapid reductions in smoking were soon followed by large falls in lung cancer deaths, early widowhoods, and early care costs. See www-epm.ucdavis.edu/~leistikow
Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, the participant (learner) in this session will be able to: 1.List 3 benefits of a healthy comprehensive tobacco control program. 2.Articulate a proceedure for assessing the adequacy and impacts of their local, state, or national tobacco control program. 3. Benchmark their regions' lung cancer trends and effects versus California trends.
Keywords: Tobacco Control, Cancer Prevention
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
Disclosure not received
Relationship: Not Received.