Effects of an aging population in the United States on lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing site-specific cancers are identified and the potential role these statistics play in monitoring disease burden discussed. Risk estimates were derived by applying cross-sectional population-based incidence rates of cancer and mortality rates from other causes to a hypothetical cohort. The cohort was aged through a double decrement life table to determine the expected proportion of the population that would develop the disease. Despite black men having higher invasive cancer incidence rates than white men, and black and white women having similar rates, because of the better life expectancy among whites lifetime risk estimates of cancer are higher for whites than blacks: 45.5% in white men, 40.4% in black men, 39.2% in white women, and 32.4% in black women based on 1995-97 data. White men experience higher 10-year cancer risk than black men in only bladder cancer, non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL), and leukemia. White women tended to show a greater risk than black women for cancers of the breast, corpus uteri, ovary, NHL, and leukemia. For both races, the 10-year risk of lung cancer ranks first among men aged 40, ranks second to prostate cancer for men aged 50, 60, and 70, and ranks second to breast cancer for women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70. Even if cancer rates remain stable or fall, it is possible for the cancer burden, as reflected by lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates, to increase due to the aging population.
Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, the participant (learner) in this session will be able to: 1.Understand the methodology underlying lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates and see how these measures may be useful for describing and monitoring the burden of cancer in the United States. 2.Articulate the meaning of lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates. 3.Apply risk estiamtes in a way useful for measuring and monitoring disease burden.
Keywords: Cancer, Aging
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.