Over the past ten years, various childhood lead poisoning prevention programs (CLPPPs) throughout the U.S. have conducted analyses of their screening data to develop "risk indices", or mathematical models for predicting the prevalence of childhood lead poisoning in various different geographic areas within their regions of concern. This study represents a comprehensive effort to develop risk index models in four targeted states (Rhode Island, New York, Wisconsin and Illinois), based on combining multiple years of CDC blood-lead surveillance data with information from the 1990 US Census. Separate models were constructed for up to four different area types within each state (large urban, smaller urban, suburban and rural), with potentially different predictors in each area type. Over 50 census variables were considered in this analysis, and objective methods were used to assess the predictive ability of each candidate variable as well as how many variables should enter any particular model. This talk will focus on the lessons learned from this study, to help CLPPP managers at the state level better target communities that are at high risk for lead poisoning and in need of additional resources for outreach and early intervention. The methods used in this study could also be extended to other environmental health outcomes such as asthma.
Learning Objectives: 1. List the important predictors for elevated blood-lead levels at the community level 2. Understand the methodology used to develop risk index models 3. Develop a ranking of communities in their region of concern from most to least severe risk of childhood lead poisoning
Keywords: Community Health Planning, Lead
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: None
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.