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The 130th Annual Meeting of APHA |
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The 130th Annual Meeting of APHA |
S Sesma Velásquez1, J. C. Campuzano Rincón2, F. J. López Antuñano2, F. Knaul3, and Hernández Avila3. (1) Secretaría de Salud, Centro de Investigacion en Salud Poblacional, Avenida Universidad No. 655, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico, 0173 175391, jcampuz@correo.insp.mx, (2) Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Centro de Investigacion en Salud Poblacional, Avenida Universidad No. 655, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico, (3) Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Fundación Mexicana para la Salud, Avenida Universidad No. 655, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
Objective to determine the effect of cigarettes prices, based on taxes, tobacco consumption and revenues in Mexico. Method. The National Household Income and Spending Survey was used to compare the income and prices, deflated to 1994´s prices. The population was grouped by income quintiles. The indicator for consumption was packages per month. Chow's test determined if tobacco consumption changes could be attributable to price changes. We estimated by a multivariate lineal regression method the cigarette demand function to find the price elasticity of tobacco demand (PATD) for different socioeconomic levels. The calculated tax elasticity revenues (TER) showed us variations on revenues when tobacco taxes changed during 1989 – 1998. A statistical model predicted the revenues between 2001-2005, assuming that filter cigarette’s taxes increase from 100 to 130% and filter-tipped taxes and prices were constant. Results. The Chow's test confirmed the importance of PETD and TER to reduce consumption and generate revenues. If prices increase 10%, the tobacco consumption will reduce 1.1% in short run and 7.3% in long run. It was not observed a price elasticity gradient between the poor and rich quintiles. The poor smokers do not consume filter-tipped cigarettes, while the rich, smoke more expensive filter cigarettes. If taxes are increased 10%, the revenues will be greater by 5.7%. The revenues will increase 29.5%, if filter cigarettes taxes grow from 100 to 130% between 2001 – 2005. These results controvert the position of tobacco industry about taxes.
Learning Objectives:
Keywords: Tobacco,
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.