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The 130th Annual Meeting of APHA |
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The 130th Annual Meeting of APHA |
Benjamin A. Shaw, MPH1, J. Liang, PhD2, N. Krause, PhD1, J. Bennett, MPH1, H. Sugisawa, PhD3, E. Kobayashi, PhD3, and H. Kim, PhD3. (1) School of Public Health, Health Behavior and Health Education, Institute of Gerontology, University of Michigan, 1420 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, 734-647-4605, bashaw@umich.edu, (2) School of Public Health, Health Management and Policy, Institute of Gerontology, University of Michigan, 1420 Washington Heights, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, (3) Department of Health Sociology, Tokyo Metroplitan Institute of Gerontology, 35-2 Sakae-cho, Itabashi-ku, Tokyo, 173-0015, Japan
As the elderly population increases, the burden of disability is expanding. This represents a major challenge for health and social services. This may be a particular challenge in Japan, where by the year 2025, over 26% of the population is expected to be age 65 or over, making it the oldest of all developed nations (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1992). Despite this trend, however, it is likely that trajectories of disability during later life vary significantly across individuals. In order to inform strategies for preventing or delaying disability in old age, we must first understand what factors account for this heterogeneity. Although much work has been done in this area, the conventional cross-sectional or short-term follow-up study designs are inadequate. What is needed now is a way to describe and characterize trajectories of functional decline over an extended period of time. In the current study, individual growth curve analysis is used to estimate trajectories of functional status among a national sample of 2,200 Japanese elders followed for up to 12 years. Although, on average, the functional ability of the sample declined across the study period, three patterns of individual change in functional status emerged from the data: (a) healthy aging with little functional decline, (b) early onset decline (at age 68), and (c) late onset decline (at age 78). Multinomial logistic regression analyses revealed that socioeconomic status, social relationships, and baseline health status predict which of the three functional status trajectories an older person is likely to experience.
Learning Objectives:
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.