The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #59096

M. Elizabeth Halloran, MD DSc, Department of Biostatistics, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, 404-727-7647, mehallo@sph.emory.edu

The last natural case of smallpox was in the 1970's. Since then, new statistical methods have been developed to estimate important epidemiologic parameters such as the latent and incubation periods, the transmission probability, and vaccine efficacy for susceptibility as well as infectiousness. All of these parameters are important in composing a complex dynamic transmission model of smallpox as the basis for studying the potential effects of various intervention strategies. Also, the assumed population structure and interaction among individuals and contact groups within the population influences the results of such dynamic models. We discuss the challenges of gathering and estimating the parameters required for qualified, quantitative dynamic models of smallpox. We illustrate our talk with our experience of stochastic simulations in a structured population of various intervention strategies.

Learning Objectives:

• At the end of this talk, the audience will be able
• to articulate the key parameters and considerations of a dynamic infectious disease transmission model, in particular a smallpox model.

Keywords: Bioterrorism, Biostatistics

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.