The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #59232

James A. Litch, MD, DTMH¹, Juliet VanEenwyk, PhD², and Steven C. Macdonald, PhD². (1) Epidemic Intelligence Service, Epidemiology Program Office, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Washington State Department of Health, PO Box 47812, Olympia, WA 98504-7812, 360 236 4254, jim.litch@doh.wa.gov, (2) Office of Epidemiology, Washington State Department of Health, PO Box 47812, Olympia, WA 98504-7812

Purpose: More than 15,000 homicides and 1.4 million violent crimes are reported annually in the United States. Although rates for homicide and violent crime in the United States both peaked in 1980s, the subsequent decline differed for each. Because violence is commonly monitored through homicide rate data alone as a key health status indicator, we examined the relationship between homicide and violent crime. Methods: We analyzed homicide and violent crime data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reporting Program. Linear regression was used to calculate correlation coefficients and residuals for the relationship between homicide and violent crime rate. Results: National annual rates of homicide and violent crime from 1990 through 1999 were highly correlated (r = 0.99). The correlation coefficient for annual homicide and violent crime rate data from individual states averaged over the 10 years 1990-1999 was lower (r = 0.78). Fourteen states had residuals larger than the residual standard deviation, and three states had residuals larger than two times the residual standard deviation. The wide 95% prediction interval implied poor predictive value for this relation between indicators. Correlations for individual states ranged from -0.52 to +1.00, indicating that the two variables are not related in the same way in all states. Conclusions: Use of homicide rates for individual states as a health status indicator does not present an accurate portrayal of violence for all states. Violent crime rate data are also readily available and could supplement homicide rate as a key indicator for states.

Learning Objectives:

At the conclusion of the session, the participant(learner) in this session will be able to:
• Identify two community violence indicators for assessment, planning and/or evaluation.
• Articulate the problems that exist with using homicide rate as an indicator for community violence.
• Recognize violent crime rate as an important community violence indicator for assessment, planning and evaluation.

Keywords: Health Indices, Violence

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.