The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

3185.0: Monday, November 17, 2003 - 1:24 PM

Abstract #62100

Modeling the influence of climate variability on influenza epidemic patterns

Sharon K. Greene, MPH, James S. Koopman, MD, MPH, and Mark L. Wilson, ScD. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, 109 S. Observatory St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109, 734-647-9276,

Although influenza is a common disease, the determinants of each season’s onset, magnitude, duration, and interannual variability remain poorly understood. The marked seasonality of influenza in temperate regions suggests that environmental variables affect transmission. Using a deterministic compartmental transmission modeling framework and traditional regression techniques, we explored the impact of climate on influenza seasonal patterns. Two Susceptible-Infected-Removed-Susceptible (SIRS) models were created with multiple levels of immunity to account for viral drift. In the first model, seasonal transmission was approximated through the use of a regular sine wave for the probability of transmission (β). In the second model, β varied based on actual values of the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), an index comprising six weather variables associated with this important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon causing global climate variability. The SIRS models were each used to generate epidemic patterns. These results were then compared to determine if the two approaches produce epidemic patterns that are distinct. The ultimate goal of this work is an enhanced understanding of the contribution of environmental variables to influenza transmission and early-warning of epidemics.

Learning Objectives:

Keywords: Infectious Diseases, Climate

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.

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The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA