The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #63702

Ron Brookmeyer, PhD, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, 410-955-3519, rbrook@jhsph.edu

This talk will consider the role of statistical reasoning in understanding anthrax outbreaks and in developing a public health response. In the fall of 2001, an act of bioterroism resulted in an anthrax outbreak in the United States. Public health officials responded by distributing antibiotics to attempt to reduce morbidity and mortality. We will consider the role of statistical models for understanding what happened in the fall of 2001. We estimate the numbers of cases of inhalational anthrax that were prevented by the distribution of antibiotics in the fall of 2001. We will also discuss the 1979 Sverdlosvk outbreak in the former Soviet to estimate the incubation period of inhalational anthrax. We also apply statistical ideas to estimate the dose response relationship to help answer critical questions necessary to develop an effective public health response to any future anthrax outbreak. Our overall findings emphasize the importance of early detection of outbreaks to minimize morbidity and mortality.

Learning Objectives:

• to show the role of statistcial reasoning in understanding anthrax outbreaks;
• to evaluate the role of antibiotic prophylaxis in preeventing disease

Keywords: Biostatistics, Bioterrorism

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.