The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #64880

Stan Becker, PhD, Population and Family Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD 21205, 410-955-4485, sbecker@jhsph.edu

This session will address current world population growth and projections to 2050. While about half of the world's population resides in countries with near or below replacement fertility (2.1 children per woman), in 52 countries, with an estimated combined population of 776 million in 2000, the total fertility rate (TFR) is still above 5.0 . Most of these countries are in Sub Saharan Africa. Overall, approximately 75 to 80 million persons are being added to the planetary ecosystem each year. So are we headed toward the United Nations world population projection of 9.3 billion in 2050 or some number closer to the 6.3 billion persons now inhabiting the planet? (Recall that we were only 2.5 billion in 1950.) To what extent does below replacement fertility counteract the demographic momentum of high past fertility? What are the prospects for rapid fertility decline in countries with high TFR today? Can we predict where and when fertility decline will start among this group of countries? What are the best explanations for the stagnation of the TFR decline around levels at or above 3.0 in some countries (e.g. Bangladesh, India, and Egypt)? How likely are there to be increases in mortality due to an overshoot in population size vis a vis available resources (and independent of HIV), before population stabilizes? This session will address these matters.

Learning Objectives:

At the end of the session, the participants will be able to:
• List countries of with very high and with very low fertility.
• Assess the relative importance of demographic momentum in producing future population growth.
• Identify important variables that predict the transition from high to declining fertility.
• Describe uncertainties in demographic projections of future population.

Keywords: Population,

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: United Nations Population Division (if any)
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.