The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA |
James O. Lloyd-Smith, Biophysics Graduate Group, University of California, Berkeley, 343 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3114, 510-643-1227, jls@nature.berkeley.edu and Wayne M. Getz, PhD, Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 201 Wellman Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720.
There is rich evidence that disease status affects contact behavior in
humans and animals, but this phenomenon has not previously been included in
epidemiological models. We explore the
relationship between partnership dynamics and transmission of a
sexually-transmitted disease (STD), and consider situations where disease
status influences pairing behavior.
Starting from a model of partnership formation, we use a simple
timescale approximation to obtain analytic expressions for the incidence rate,
basic reproductive ratio (R0),
and endemic prevalence (i¥) of an epidemic
for four cases of increasing disease-induced behavioral change. Such behavioral change can therefore be
incorporated into STD models with minimal effort.
In addition to these new methods, two main insights arise from our
analysis:
1.
Effects of
disease-induced changes of behavior are illustrated by simulating STD
epidemics. Behavioral changes are found
to have greater impact on epidemics of transient, highly-transmissible
infections (e.g. gonorrhea, chlamydia) than on chronic, less-transmissible
infections (e.g. HIV, HSV-2).
2.
When disease does not
alter behavior, the pair-formation model reduces to the classical
“frequency-dependent” transmission model when our timescale approximation
holds. Our derivation thus clarifies
conditions under which frequency-dependence accurately represents the
fundamental pair-based nature of STD transmission. Exploring different scenarios, we conclude that caution should be
exercised when using frequency-dependent transmission to model transient
infections such as most bacterial STDs.
Learning Objectives:
Keywords: STD, Behavioral Research
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.