The 131st Annual Meeting (November 15-19, 2003) of APHA

Abstract #71096

Cheryl Healton, DrPH¹, Drew Lindsey, BA², and Matthew Farrelly, PhD². (1) President and CEO, American Legacy Foundation, 1001 G Street, NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC 20001, 202-454-5555, chealton@americanlegacy.org, (2) Center for Interdisciplinary Substance Abuse Research, Research Triangle Institute, 3040 Cornwallis Road, P.O. Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709

Smoking rates among high school seniors reached their apex in 1997 and have since dropped steadily due to a number of factors including increases in cigarette prices, state tobacco control programs, and national tobacco countermarketing campaigns. Reductions in youth smoking represent lost revenue to the tobacco industry. This study investigates the extent to which these reductions have impacted current and future industry revenues.

Results: Using Monitoring the Future data on 30-day smoking prevalence rates and rates of smoking intensity, we conclude that 4.6 million youth consumed approximately 667 million packs of cigarettes in 2001, amounting to more than $1.5 billion in tobacco industry revenue. Reductions in youth smoking rates led to a decrease in the total number of packs consumed by youth in 2002 (574 million cigarettes by 4 million youth) and reduced industry revenues by almost $200 million to $1.3 billion.

In order to calculate revenues lost over the lifetime of a given age cohort, we predicted 12th grade smoking rates through 2010 based on recent declines. We then compared the Class of 1997 to the Class of 2010 and predicted the number of future smokers for each group. We estimate that if current reductions in youth smoking persist, over their lifetimes the Class of 2010 will smoke 11 billion fewer packs of cigarettes than the Class of 1997, translating to more than 25 billion dollars in lost tobacco industry revenue.

Learning Objectives:

• 1. Assess the impact of youth smoking declines on present and future tobacco industry revenues
• 2. Discuss the contribution of the truthsm media campaign to reduced industry revenues
• 3. Identify the additional impact of cigarette excise tax increases on tobacco industry revenues

Keywords: Tobacco, Medicaid Managed Care

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: American Legacy Foundation
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.