Hongjie Liu, PhD¹, Tak Sun Yu, MD², and Tze Wai Wong, MD². (1) Pediatric Prevention Research Center, Wayne State University, 4201 St Antonie Street, UHC 6D, Detroit, MI 48201, 313-745-1235, hongjie@med.wayne.edu, (2) Department of Community and Family Medicine, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 4/F, School of Public Health, Prince of Wales Hospital, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong

Background: Hong Kong is the epidemic center of SARS in 2003. The objectives of the study were (1) to illustrate the natural history of SARS; (2) to identify effective intervention strategies and (3) to study the effects of control measures at different stages of the epidemic Method: A simple deterministic compartmental approach with easily comprehensible parameters and local data to model the dynamics and control of SARS at the community level in Hong Kong Results: We used the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) model and estimated various parameters in the community epidemic. A one-day reduction in delay in hospital admission gives rise to a 12.4% reduction in R0. If measures taken to reduce the delay in hospital admission started on day 10 of the epidemic and more rigorous control measures on day 20, the number of SARS cases could be reduced by 80%. Conclusions: Shortening the time period between the onset of illness and hospital admission, and reducing the probability of transmission of SARS to social contacts are most effective in controlling the SARS epidemic at the community level.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, the participant will be able to understand

(
• the parameters used in the simple deterministic model, (
• the natural history of SARS, and (
• the effective intervention strategies to control SARS epidemic at the community level.

Keywords: Infectious Diseases, Epidemiology

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.