Recorded presentation

Jean T. Shope, PhD, MSPH, Lisa J. Molnar, MHSA, and C. Raymond Bingham, PhD. Transportation Research Institute, University of Michigan, 2901 Baxter Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2150, 734-763-2466, jshope@umich.edu

Purpose: Begun by Patricia F. Waller, the evaluation of Michigan's Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) program, implemented in 1997, is ongoing. While early positive results have been reported, longer term and more detailed effects are being sought to determine if program improvements are needed. Methods: Pre-GDL crash data for 16 year-old drivers were compared with post-GDL data. Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for several crash types were computed, comparing pre- and post-GDL population-based crash rates. Ongoing analyses address crashes within each GDL level, length of time at each GDL level, age at licensure, and driving violations. In addition, older teen drivers' crashes are being examined to determine the full GDL effect. Results: Reductions in crash risk from 1996 to 2001 were 27% for all crashes, 42% for fatal, 36% for nonfatal injury, 36% for fatal-plus-nonfatal injury, 30% for day, 38% for evening, 58% for night, 30% for single-vehicle, and 26% for multi-vehicle crashes. After adjusting for population-wide changes among drivers 25-years-and-older, reductions remained impressive at 18% for all crashes in 2001. Results from other analyses being conducted will also be reported. Conclusions: As one approach to reducing teenage motor-vehicle injuries and fatalities, GDL remains promising, at least for 16-year-old drivers. As further evaluation results become known, there will likely be several ways in which its effectiveness could be enhanced. (Supported by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.)

Learning Objectives:

• Describe Michigan's Graduated Driver Licensing evaluation results.
• Discuss the challenges inherent in evaluating Graduated Driver Licensing programs.
• Identify ways to enhance the injury prevention effects of Graduated Driver Licensing programs.

Keywords: Motor Vehicles, Adolescents

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.

Recorded presentation