Recorded presentation

Yasmin Chandani, MPH, DELIVER, John Snow, Inc, 1616 North Fort Myer Dr, 11th Floor, Arlington, VA 22209 and Claudia Allers, MPH, BSN, DELIVER Project, John Snow, Inc., 1616 N. Fort Myer Dr., 11th Floor, Arlington, VA 22209, 703-528-7474, claudia_allers@jsi.com.

Issues: To achieve WHO’s 3 by 5 global treatment targets, an unprecedented quantity of HIV/AIDS commodities need to flow through resource-limited health systems. Although global targets have been set, individual country targets must be developed, along with medium-term forecasts to inform plans for financing, procurement and in-country supply and distribution of these commodities. Careful forecasting and quantification are critical components of commodity security for HIV/AIDS programs.

Description: This paper presents the results of developing short-term needs estimates for HIV/AIDS programs in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, and presents a comparison of commodity requirements based on existing logistics and service capacity and absolute requirements related to WHO targets. Methodologies and software packages developed through John Snow Inc.’s DELIVER project for quantifying short and medium term HIV/AIDS commodity needs for national and NGO programs are presented.

Lessons Learned: Without careful forecasting and quantification of HIV/AIDS commodity needs, countries risk large-scale product wastage. Planning for commodity needs should consider financial, human and health system capacity. Through quantification and procurement planning, HIV/AIDS program managers can better assess product availability and plan for program expansion, allocate use of existing resources or advocate for increased resources, and adopt alternate models of distribution and logistics management based on national targets.

Recommendations: Countries should adopt a commodity security framework to minimize uninterrupted supply of selected HIV/AIDS commodities. A key component of the framework should be routine forecasting and quantification of HIV/AIDS commodity needs in light of system capacity and realistic program expansion.

Learning Objectives:

At the conclusion of this session, participants will be able to—
• Discuss the benefits of short to medium term forecasting and procurement planning for program expansion and optimal use of new funding sources;
• Understand service delivery and logistics system enhancements necessary for achieving distribution of HIV/AIDS commodities for WHO and PEPFAR targets;
• Identify a framework to minimize interruptions in commodity supply while enabling logistics system improvements and HIV/AIDS program expansion.

Keywords: International Health, Home Based

Related Web page: www.deliver.jsi.com

Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: JSI/DELIVER Project
I have a significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.
Relationship: JSI/DELIVER Project Logistics Advisor

Recorded presentation