Ratan Singh, MD1, Mailud Al- Amari, MPH2, and Mohammad A. Dydamouny, MD2. (1) Family and Community Medicine, Al Tahady University, Sirt, Libya., PO BOX 16, Sirt, Libya, (2) Public Health, Garyounis University, PO Box 18251, Benghazi, Libya, 091- 610-1494, Mailud562001@yahoo.com
The present study has analysed Libyan demographic dynamics, fertility trends and correlates since 1954. Population between 1954 (since first national census) and 2002 increased from 1.041 million to 5.484 million. For every 1000 population, crude birth rate declined from 48.0 to 36.0 and crude death from 22.7 to 7.0. The natural increase rate was 2.5% in 1954, reached a high peak of 3.8% in 1973 and thereafter declined to 2.9 % in 2002. The other fertility indicators like TFR, GFR and ASFRs had dramatically fallen over the period. In fact, between 1949-2002, IMR per 1000 live births had fallen from 300 to a bare minimum of 24.4; whereas, at the same time life expectancy had risen from 42.4 years to 69.5 years. Simultaneously there were equally impressive gains in urban population from 25% to 76%, GNP per capita from 50 to 8220 US$, female education level from 12.2% to 74.0%, female age of marriage from 15 years to 24 years, and contraception use rate from <5% to 45%. However, the proportion of married females (15 years & more) was 42.8% in 1954, increased to 77.3% in 1964 and declined again to 42.8% in 1995. It is speculated that the demographic change in the coming years would result from the interplay of continuing differences in fertility and mortality- which would be determined by availability and access to reproductive health services, upward socio-economic mobility and progress in health development.
Presenting author's disclosure statement:
Organization/institution whose products or services will be discussed: Garyounis University
I do not have any significant financial interest/arrangement or affiliation with any organization/institution whose products or services are being discussed in this session.
The 132nd Annual Meeting (November 6-10, 2004) of APHA