Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #102656

Bleddyn P. Davies, DPhil, PSSRU LSE Health and Social Care, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom, 441865 511 513, b.davies@lse.ac.uk

Crises in the financing of public spending on older people are feared in all countries. But their severity and nature will depend on many influences: performance of the economy in general and productivity growth in particular, demographic projections, dependency ratios and productivity trends, the existing financing arrangements for public spending on pensions, health and other services, public expectations, and factors affecting the difficulty adapting policies. Long-term care may be among the most sensitive of policy areas to these broad environmental changes. The paper analyses these influences in the British against the background of the PSSRU'S projections of numbers of persons in circumstances predicting need for long-term care, the supply of informal care, and of expenditures from public funds given current policy and likely scenarios given the implementation of the proposals now being discussed, particularly for the financing of public spending on long-term care. It considers the likely benefits and opportunity costs of proposals made by the main political parties in the election held during the first half of 2000 and considers how innovations in financing mechanisms in other countries could usefully influence British development. It concludes by arguing that what emerges may further erode the prioritisation of the social goals implicit in the British social welfare paradigm of the period between 1970 and 2000.

Learning Objectives:

• At the conclusion of the session, the participant will
• - have insights into British expectations about likely influences on policy choices and spending levels in long-term care
• - be introduced to projections of orders of magnitude of numbers at highest risk of needing long-term care, effects of social and economic trends on these and on public subsidisation of long-term care given current policies
• - be introduced to policy proposals of the parties competing in the general election of 2005
• - hear a discussion of ways in which innovations in financing mechanisms in other countries might influence British policies
• - hear an outline analysis of the implications for the nature and achievements of British long-term care in the middle of the century.

Keywords: Financing, Long-Term Care

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commercial supporters.

Recorded presentation