Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #104372

Lynn Unruh, PhD, RN, Health Services Administration Program, University of Central Florida, HPA-2, Rm 210L, Orlando, FL 32816-2200, (407) 823-4237, lunruh@mail.ucf.edu

Research Objectives and Methods: This paper proposes a model for forecasting supply and demand of RNs in the state of Florida. It discusses the pros and cons of different models used in healthcare workforce planning, the factors involved in modeling, supply and demand conceptual models, and the data needed for the conceptual models. Models to avoid or consider are suggested.

Results: The types of models frequently used in healthcare workforce planning are: nursing needs; nursing personnel-to-population utilization; and an econometric approach. Conceptual models show the interactions between socio-cultural, employment, educational, economic, demographic and other factors that result in levels of demand and supply. Data needs follow the conceptual models and their factors. A review of forecasting efforts in several states revealed that the older Human Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) models should be avoided at this time. Alternative models for Florida healthcare workforce planners are: 1) a simple model that estimates supply and demand separately and establishes any gap that is found; 2) the new HRSA utilization-based supply and demand models when they become available; 3) an econometric simultaneous equation model of demand and supply that includes common factors influencing labor market fluctuations and statistically derived elasticities of those factors.

Discussion: The model form and the data needs for each of the alternative models are discussed. Based on data availability in Florida, the paper concludes that the only analysis that can be accomplished in the near future is the first alternative model, and that data collection should be pursued.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, the participant will be able to

• Compare and contrast the types of models frequently used in healthcare workforce planning and their pros and cons.
• Describe the conceptual models for supply and demand of RNs, the factors involved in the models, and the data needed for the models.
• Describe the alternative models for RN workforce planning for the state of Florida, and prioritize them based on data and model availability.

Keywords: Workforce, Planning

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commercial supporters.