Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #108894

Victoria Elliott, MSc, Public Health/Health Policy, Lothian NHS, Deaconess House, 148 Pleasance, Edinburgh, EH8 9RS, United Kingdom, 0131 536 9220, Victoria.Elliot@lhb.scot.nhs.uk, Mome Mukherjee, MA, MPhil, Drugs & Alcohol Misuse, Information Services, NHS National Services Scotland, 1 South Gyle Crescent, Edinburgh, EH12 9EB, United Kingdom, and Phil Mackie, Lothian NHS Board, Deaconess House, 148 Pleasance, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.

Planning and budgeting future health services requirements relies on accurate estimation of the expected populations with specific health care needs. These expected populations can be derived by applying known prevalence rates to the local area population projections. To enable local level service planning or small area population projections are required. These can be produced in a number of ways each associated with their own advantages and disadvantages. The aim of this project was to produce small area population projections that could be used for epidemiologic health care planning. Specifically, as a basis to predict future levels of morbidity and potential drug costs within specific populations of older people within Lothian. The objectives of the project were: * to use a cohort-component method to project local area populations split by age and sex; * to assess the validity of the method to produce robust projections for small geographical areas; and * to produce information which is useful to NHS Lothian and partner agencies for the planning of future health services and health service budgeting. The results of the project include robust, local population projections for small areas of Lothian, Scotland that can be used for local epidemiological planning. The projections produced using this method will be presented together with an application of the estimates in relation to the potential local prescribing costs of drugs used in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

Learning Objectives:

• The participant in this session will be able to understand the methods used to produce a pragmatic population projection for small geographical areas. How to overcome problems associated with the use of these projections for epidemiologic approaches to health care planning will be explored.

Keywords: Epidemiology, Public Health Research

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commercial supporters.

Recorded presentation