Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #109153

Ali Karim, Karen Ampeh, Lois Todhunter, Dana Aronovich, and David O'Brien. DELIVER Project, John Snow, Inc., 1616 N Fort Myer Dr., 11th Floor, Arlington, VA 22209, (703) 528-7474, akarim@jsi.com

As the funding requirements from public sector and donor sources for the procurement of health commodities continue to rise to meet current demand, the quality and accuracy of forecasting commodity needs takes on greater importance. Accurately forecasting needs is one of the vital functions of logistics systems to ensure informed procurement, the efficient use of limited resources, and continuous commodity availability to clients. John Snow, Inc. (JSI) works with USAID and CDC to forecast contraceptive needs for USAID-supported programs. For this purpose, JSI maintains a database containing yearly information on past contraceptive distribution and future needs along with procurement plans and shipments for USAID clients (e.g., MOH, NGOs, and social marketing programs). This paper examines the accuracy of the forecasts from the database to evaluate the quality of current contraceptive forecasting processes. Forecasting based on past consumption is most accurate. Accurate information on past consumption depends on an effective logistics management information system (LMIS). The impact of LMIS and best practices on forecasting accuracy is examined. Forecast accuracy is defined as the absolute percentage difference between projected and actual use. A time-series analysis of 1,050 forecasts between 1995 and 2003 for 50 USAID clients shows that improving LMIS and best practices improves forecast accuracy to a level (26 percent) that is acceptable for one-year-ahead forecast according to US commercial forecasting standards. The practices of this forecasting program and the quality of data used for making procurement decisions have important implications for other programs and national health outcomes.

Learning Objectives:

• Examine how improving forecast accuracy can enhance the efficient use of resources.
• Describe the database that maintains contraceptive forecast and procurement data for USAID.
• Identify the best practices in forecasting contraceptives.
• Discuss the expected standards for forecast accuracy.
• Describe the policy implications of forecasting accuracy and the importance of having high quality data for making procurement decisions.

Keywords: International Reproductive Health, Assessments

Related Web page: www.deliver.jsi.com/2002/whatsnew/index.cfm

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commercial supporters.

Recorded presentation