Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #113523

David Mendez, PhD, Kenneth E. Warner, PhD, and Kristen M. Hassmiller, MHSA. Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, M3232 SPH II, 109 Observatory, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029, 734-647-0218, dmendez@umich.edu

National goals for smoking rates targets in the US usually focus on achieving a smoking prevalence level by a certain date without considering the specific dynamics of initiation and cessation necessary to achieve those targets. We hypothesize that different combinations of initiation and cessation efforts can achieve the same smoking prevalence level with a very different effect on mortality and medical costs. This paper examines the impact on mortality and medical costs of smoking control policies that focus on reducing initiation versus that of policies that center on smoking cessation. We first present a system dynamics model that keeps track of smoking prevalence, medical costs by smoking status, and smoking-related mortality over time. We then introduce various combinations of smoking cessation increase and initiation decline that will produce the same adult smoking prevalence by the year 2020 in the US. Finally, we evaluate the subsequent impact on mortality and medical costs of such policy combinations up to the year 2050. Our research highlights the importance of considering the dynamic nature of the smoking problem when formulating control policies.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the presentation, participants will be able to

• Describe system dynamics and how it can be used in tobacco control policy formulation.
• Recognize the differential impact of policies that target smoking initiation as opposed to smoking cessation.

Keywords: Tobacco Policy, Simulation

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commertial supporters WITH THE EXCEPTION OF a grant (No. 034909) from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.