Back to Annual Meeting Page		American Public Health Association 133rd Annual Meeting & Exposition December 10-14, 2005 Philadelphia, PA

Abstract #115668

Douglas J. Wiebe, PhD¹, Michael R. Elliott, PhD², Robert T. Krafty, MA³, Christopher S. Koper, PhD⁴, Michael L. Nance, MD⁵, and Charles C. Branas, PhD¹. (1) Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Pennsylvania, 933 Blockley Hall, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6021, (215) 746-0149, dwiebe@cceb.med.upenn.edu, (2) Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Pennsylvania, 612 BLOCKLEY/6021, 423 GUARDIAN DRIVE, Philadelphia, PA 19104, (3) University of Pennsylvania, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA 19104, (4) Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania, Jerry Lee Center for Criminology, 3814 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, (5) Department of Surgery, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, 34th and Civic Center Boulevard, Philadelphia, PA 19104

Background: A high prevalence of firearms dealers (federal firearms licensees, FFLs) may increase gun availability locally. We investigated the possibility that FFL prevalence, a gun availability proxy, in a county impacts the rate of homicide. Low-volume FFLs dropped dramatically in number during the 1990s. Hence a stronger FFL-homicide link was expected in the late 1990s when major dealers were more prominent.

Methods: Data were the per-capita prevalence of FFLs (per 1,000) and firearm and nonfirearm homicide rates (per 100,000) in U.S. counties annually, 1993-1999. Beta coefficients from negative binomial regression gauged whether FFL prevalence in a county was related to rates of firearm and non-firearm homicide. Variation by year and urbanicity were examined and confounding was controlled.

Results: The observed link between FFLs and firearm homicide was unique in the most urban counties: it increased in magnitude from 1993-1999 and in 1999 suggested counties with a high FFL prevalence experienced the highest gun homicide rates (2.6, 95% CI -0.4 to 5.6, p=0.091). FFLs and non-firearm homicide were not associated in this manner. By contrast, in large counties adjacent to the most urban counties, FFLs were negatively correlated with firearm homicide during a number of years and were not significantly associated during others. FFLs were not associated with rates of firearm homicide in rural areas.

Conclusions: The number of FFLs in the most urban counties may contribute to firearm homicide. If this is the case, FFLs may be thought of as a modifiable risk factor for focused prevention measures.

Learning Objectives:

• Describe key points in the history of how licenses to sell firearms in the U.S. have been regulated.
• Critically consider the possibility that having a high number of gun dealers in a locale may be linked to a high rate of gun homicide.
• List ways it might be possible for municipal advisory committees to reduce the likelihood of gun-related homicide in their community.

Keywords: Firearms, Homicide

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

I wish to disclose that I have NO financial interests or other relationship with the manufactures of commercial products, suppliers of commercial services or commercial supporters.