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APHA Scientific Session and Event Listing

Brett R. Loomis, Matthew C. Farrelly, and Mark Engelen. Health, Social, and Economic Research, RTI International, 3040 Cornwallis Road, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, 919-485-2737, loomis@rti.org

Objective: Estimate the effect of current and 15 years of past per capita cigarette consumption on the current age-adjusted death rate for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the United States. Methods: We use distributed lag models with national data from 1979-2002. Covariates include current and past cigarette consumption, the prevalence of high blood cholesterol, and the prevalence of hypertension. We project the impact on AMI deaths of a reduction in cigarette consumption such as might be achieved by a comprehensive tobacco control program. Outcomes: As many as 13 years of per capita cigarette consumption is positively and significantly related to current AMI mortality. Current cigarette consumption has the largest impact on AMI mortality, with the effect of past years consumption decreasing over time. Modest annual reductions in per capita cigarette consumption that are sustained over time have the potential to avert substantial numbers of AMI deaths. Conclusions: Tobacco control programs that are effective at lowering per capita cigarette consumption can expect to meaningfully reduce AMI mortality. The long span of the relationship between cigarette consumption and AMI mortality implies that consumption declines achieved in one year will continue to effect mortality for several years in the future, but that programs need to be sustained at effective levels for many years to achieve maximal benefits.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of this presentation, the participant will be able to

• Discuss the nature of the long-run relationship between aggregate cigarette consumption and AMI death rates.
• Cite the impact of changes in cigarette consumption on AMI death rates.
• Articulate the importance of this relationship for tobacco control.

Keywords: Tobacco Control, Heart Disease

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Not Answered