Back to Annual Meeting

Back to Annual Meeting

APHA Scientific Session and Event Listing

Robert Engelman, MS and Elizabeth Leahy. Research Department, Population Action International, 1300 19th Street, N.W., Second floor, Washington, DC 20036, 202-557-3430, eleahy@popact.org

The demographic term replacement fertility relates to public health as well as to population change. Widely misunderstood as a constant 2.1 children per woman characteristic of stable populations, replacement fertility is actually a variable that changes over time and varies significantly among country populations. In nine countries, women must give birth to an average of more than three children to assure their own replacement in the next generation. In sub-Saharan Africa, the average is 2.8 children. These populations share high mortality rates for females between birth and the middle of reproductive age. Sex-selective abortion also raises replacement fertility rates. Both sex ratio at birth and infant girls' rates of survival to their late twenties, the components of replacement fertility calculations, can be plotted through country- and age-specific profiles. Through one number, replacement fertility rates can convey how dangerous life is for girls and young women in some populations and the extent to which son preference prevents the birth of girls. Monitoring the variation and evolution of replacement fertility rates can help alert the public health community to emerging crises in young female mortality, as in the case of countries highly affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Learning Objectives: At the conclusion of the session, participants will be able to

• Define replacement fertility and explain how replacement fertility rates are derived.
• Name three countries with very high replacement fertility rates, and explain why these rates are high in each.
• Project trends in replacement fertility for various categories of countries over the 2005-2015 decade and explain the assumptions on which these projections are based.

Keywords: Mortality, Gender

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Not Answered