Factors and Predictors of Youth Violence in the Brazilian Federal District

In Brazil, according to the National Ministry of Health, youth violence represents the major cause of mortality/morbidity among individuals aged 18 and 24 years. A representative residential survey (n=1,037) carried out by Caixa Seguros, John Snow Brasil and Opinião among youth aged 18-24 residents of the Brazilian Federal District asked: “Have you ever committed an act of violence against someone?” In-depth statistical analysis of this and other questions examined if there are means of predicting what influences youth to commit physical violence. The main dependent variable is violence committed by youth. Based on Rates of Youth Violence (RYV), a statistical regression model, using population profiles and behaviors as independent variables was developed. A MLR model shows the different associations between RYV and personal references, gun use, use of drugs, school attendance, gender, and preference for educational programs in the media. The lack of a personal reference increases RYB by 6.2% (p-value<0.01). Reporting a previous use of cocaine increase RYB by 10.6% (p-value<0.01). And, previous use of guns increases RYB by 10.7% (p-value<0.01). Every year increase in average education reduces RYV by 1.1%; and for every one school year repetition, RYV increases by 2.7% (p-value<0.01). Male youth is 135% more likely to have committed violence in comparison to females (p-value<0.01). Significant preference for educational TV programs reduces RYV by 4.4% (p-value<0.05). Interventions addressing youth mental health needs and promoting multi-sectoral approaches (involving school, media, community, and family) for provision of support networks to youth should be emphasized in Brazil.