Differential Predictability of Youth Alcohol Use using Risk and Protective Factor Data: Washington's Strategic Prevention Framework State Incentive Grant

The State of Washington has funded 12 communities of varying demographic characteristics to implement the federal Center for Substance Abuse Prevention's (CSAP) Strategic Prevention Framework (SPF) and address the state's prevention priority of reducing underage drinking. A centerpiece of the SPF is that prevention planning and implementation must be highly data-driven. The state has conducted a biennial survey of 6th, 8th, 10th and 12th graders since 1988, assessing youth alcohol, tobacco and other drug (ATOD) use and associated risk and protective factors. Statewide survey implementation has grown to include over 200,000 students in 850 schools (nearly 80% of the population). To assist in local prevention planning, the state epidemiological analyst conducted logistic regression analyses to determine the strength of the relationship between risk and protective factors and youth alcohol use. These analyses were conducted separately for communities of varying demographic profiles (poverty level, racial/ethnic distribution, and urbanicity). Odds ratios from both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models range from 1.00 to nearly 20.00, indicating highly differential salience of specific risk and protective factors in their relationship to underage drinking and, hence, suggesting differential focus in planning prevention strategies at the community level. This presentation details these empirical results, illustrates how they have been used to set priorities in prevention planning at the local level, and the implications of these data and processes for the statewide prevention of underage drinking in Washington.