Economic effects of clean indoor air ordinances on bars and restaurants in Minnesota cities

INTRODUCTION: To protect the health of both smoking and non-smoking workers and the public from secondhand smoke exposure, 17 clean indoor air (CIA) policies have been enacted in Minnesota cities to restrict or ban smoking in restaurants and/or bars. Despite the lack of evidence, vocal opponents have argued that CIA policies have a negative economic impact on bars and restaurants in Minnesota and elsewhere. To date, there are limited local data available to provide to policy decision-makers concerned about negative impacts of CIA policies. METHODS: To evaluate economic impact of CIA policies in Minnesota, interrupted time-series analyses will be used to compare total employment in full-service restaurants and bars before and after enactment of a CIA policy in eight cities, using monthly data obtained from the state. This study has three key strengths over previous economic impact analyses: 1) time-series models will provide more robust estimates of policy effects by accounting for underlying economic trends and seasonality, 2) the two control cities provide the strongest design to infer causality in the absence of randomization, and 3) the exclusion of fast-food and other limited service restaurants unlikely to be economically affected by CIA policies avoids dilution of policy effects. RESULTS: After accounting for seasonality, inflation, and other economic trends, the magnitude of the effect of CIA policies on employment in bars and restaurants will be described for select Minnesota cities. Time-series methods will be described in practical detail for application to other communities and issues.