Is One in Seven a Myth? The Implications of Using National Data to Address State and Local Issues

Background/Significance: Although the CDC identifies the importance of reducing sexual and physical violence and creating effective violence prevention programs most states inform their direct service decisions using nationally extrapolated data.

Objective/Purpose: Recently states have started to collect state level data in an effort to target their violence prevention programs. Our research compares the results of state extrapolations using national data and the state analyses using specifically collected state data to examine differences in conclusions regarding prevalence.

Methods: We examined the variations between statewide surveys of the prevalence of sexual and physical assault with state studies using the extrapolated national data. We then designed an analysis using the statewide surveys to determine the prevalence of sexual and physical assault among women ages 18 and older.

Results: Comparing national and state sexual violence prevalence data we find that states conducting their own sexual and physical violence prevalence studies report higher prevalence rates for both sexual and physical violence than the state studies using prevalence rates obtained by extrapolating national data. Further analysis indicates both the national and statewide studies may be underestimating prevalence rates as younger and low income women are not adequately represented in the sampling

Discussion/Conclusions: States should exercise caution when using national data extrapolations to make state program and policy decisions as they may not be adequately identifying population needs. Improved data collection strategies should be identified in an effort to target violence prevention programs to segments of the population with high prevalence rates of sexual and physical violence.