Predictors of attrition in U.S. Army basic training and in the first 2 years of military service

Attrition from military service is a potentially life-compromising outcome for young recruits, affecting both future education and employment options. Approximately 7% of Army recruits attrit during the first six months of service and approximately 11% attrit within their first three years. Much of the research on attrition has focused on demographic, psychosocial, and health-related risk factors, to include lower educational level, female gender, moral character, prior injury, and low physical activity prior to service. Heavy alcohol use and cigarette use prior to service have also been associated with attrition. A theory-based conceptual model will be used to guide analyses of the predictors of attrition in Army basic training (BT) and during the first two years of enlistment. Separate analyses will be conducted by gender and component (Guard and Reserve vs. Active Duty). Between 2002 and 2003, 22,156 Army recruits in BT completed the self-administered Recruit Assessment Program questionnaire with measures of childhood and adult exposures (physical and sexual violence, secondhand smoke), physical and mental functioning, health-compromising behaviors (tobacco and alcohol use, physical activity and nutrition, sexual and driving behaviors), and potential social support (religiosity and social network). Questionnaire responses were matched with personnel and medical data containing demographic (education, ethnicity, marital status), career (deployment and attrition information), and injury information. Structural equation and logistic regression modeling will be used to identify individual factors and factor combinations associated with attrition. Based on the extant literature, risky alcohol and tobacco use are expected to be key predictors of attrition.