Gun carrying among high school students: Does overestimation of peer gun carrying matter?

Purpose Overestimation of peer alcohol consumption has been found to be associated with increased alcohol consumption among youth. Because youth may also overestimate peer firearm carrying, we examined whether beliefs about peer gun carrying were associated with increased risk for gun carrying among youth. Methods Data come from the 2006 Boston Youth Survey, a random sample of students in Boston public high schools. We used logistic regression to assess whether beliefs about peer gun carrying were associated with self-reported gun carrying. Models controlled for demographic variables as well as for other factors potentially associated with gun carrying, such as students' exposure to violence. Results About 1 in 20 respondents (5.6%) respondents (n=857), and one out of 10 boys reported having carried a gun in the past year (compared to 3% of girls). In contrast, respondents believed that, on average, 28% of their classmates were carrying guns. Those who believed that over 30% of their schoolmates carried a gun were more than twice as likely (multivariate OR 3.7, 95% C.I. 1.9-7.2) to carry a gun than those who believed that fewer of their classmates were armed. Conclusions High school students substantially overestimate the proportion of their classmates who carry guns, and this misperception is associated with increased gun carrying. Resetting students' perceptions, for example through a media campaign, may be an important strategy for reducing gun carrying among those whose behavior is influenced either by fear of encountering armed classmates or peer pressure.