Health Risks from Climate Variability and Change in the Upper Midwest

Gaps exist from past studies of climate change health risks, especially regarding morbidity from heat waves and water contamination from extreme rainfall events – both weather events expected to increase with climate change. This regional assessment focuses on the morbidity effects of current weather variability, especially temperature and precipitation extremes across the state of Wisconsin. We will project the morbidity effects of future climate change, by combining present-day risk factors with high resolution regional climate model (RCM) fields for the period 2040-2070. We adjust for adaptation considering air conditioning projections and urban heat response planning. We hypothesize that the net effect of hot- and cold-related morbidity in Wisconsin and Chicago will depend on the duration and intensity of summertime stagnant air masses and wintertime arctic air surges, as well as precipitation extremes, air conditioning use and improved heat wave disaster planning. Expected intensification of the hydrologic cycle in combination with higher maximum summer temperatures could increase potential health risks from recreational waters. The regional conclusions from this study will inform the development of a Reduced-form Model for integrated decision support, facilitating a low-cost transfer of these analysis methods to other study regions and time periods.