158800 Health Risks from Climate Variability and Change in the Upper Midwest

Tuesday, November 6, 2007: 2:45 PM

J.a. Patz, MD, MPH , Nelson Institute & Dept. Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
Henry Anderson, MD , Division of Public Health, Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services, Madison, WI
Tracey A. Holloway, PhD , Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies & Dept. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
Marty Kanarek, PhD , Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, WI
Bo Li, PhD , Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO
Linda Mearns, PhD , Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO
Steve Sain, PhD , Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO
Steve Vavrus, PhD , Dept. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
Gaps exist from past studies of climate change health risks, especially regarding morbidity from heat waves and water contamination from extreme rainfall events both weather events expected to increase with climate change. This regional assessment focuses on the morbidity effects of current weather variability, especially temperature and precipitation extremes across the state of Wisconsin. We will project the morbidity effects of future climate change, by combining present-day risk factors with high resolution regional climate model (RCM) fields for the period 2040-2070. We adjust for adaptation considering air conditioning projections and urban heat response planning. We hypothesize that the net effect of hot- and cold-related morbidity in Wisconsin and Chicago will depend on the duration and intensity of summertime stagnant air masses and wintertime arctic air surges, as well as precipitation extremes, air conditioning use and improved heat wave disaster planning. Expected intensification of the hydrologic cycle in combination with higher maximum summer temperatures could increase potential health risks from recreational waters. The regional conclusions from this study will inform the development of a Reduced-form Model for integrated decision support, facilitating a low-cost transfer of these analysis methods to other study regions and time periods.

Learning Objectives:
1) To show the risk assessment of climate variability and projected climate change for the state of Wisconsin and Chicago. 2) To show how a multi-stakeholder process can help towards a successful decision support tool 3) To demonstrate how a climate early warning system can reduce climate-related morbidity

Keywords: Climate Change, Water Quality

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Any relevant financial relationships? No
Any institutionally-contracted trials related to this submission?

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.