Effects of Climate Change on Human Health in a U.S. Population: Current and Future Impacts

We discuss a research study to define the interrelationships among changes in climate and meteorological conditions, air pollution, and heat and cold-related morbidity in three regions representing different air mass/weather types in North Carolina. One goal of the study is to determine whether economically disadvantaged adults and children are especially vulnerable to heat-related morbidity effects. Analyses comparing statewide hospitalizations for nonfatal heart attacks, heat symptoms, and influenza in adults, and asthma in children with meteorological and climatological data will be presented. The development of models to predict future regional health impacts of climate variations will be described. We classify daily air mass/weather types in terms of eight types. These weather types identify air masses in terms of their origin, tempartaure and moisture content. The daily weather at a given location containing a long time series of weather data is classified into one of the eight air mass types. Corresponding metrological, air quality and health data are used for the analysis. Preliminary analyses of meteorological, air quality and health data in the Charlotte area show strong relationships between daily maximum ozone concentrations and the daily maximum temperature, daily mean dew point, and the wind speed. Three air mass types tend to dominate the periods of high ozone concentration during the ozone season. On the health side, we identify circulation patterns where one-day lag correlations between asthma hospital admissions and daily maximum ozone concentrations exhibits significant relationship. In addition to ozone, we will present analyses to PM10, CO, and NO2.