164595 Poisson Distribution in the Evaluation of the Fusarium Keratitis Outbreak of 2005-2005

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

John D. Bullock, MD, MPH, MSc , Community Health/Health Systems Management; Mathematics and Statistics, Wright State University School of Medicine, Kettering, OH
PURPOSE The Poisson distribution is used to model discrete events that occur infrequently in time or space.

METHODS This distribution was applied to data from five centers during the Fusarium keratitis outbreak of 2005-2006. The expected numbers of cases, determined from historical data, were compared with the observed and probabilities were calculated. The use of a Poisson Table is demonstrated.

RESULTS The probabilities that the numbers of cases observed were a chance variation from the expected, and not due to an outbreak, were between 1.54x10-6 and 4.94x10-54.

CONCLUSIONS The outbreak is thus documented probabilistically. Future use of the Poisson distribution, upon the first suspicion of a possible outbreak, may serve as an “early warning system.”

Learning Objectives:
To demonstrate how the Poisson distribution could have served as an "early warning system" for the Fusarium keratitis outbreak of 2005-2006

Keywords: Vision Care, Biostatistics

Presenting author's disclosure statement:

Any relevant financial relationships? No
Any institutionally-contracted trials related to this submission?

I agree to comply with the American Public Health Association Conflict of Interest and Commercial Support Guidelines, and to disclose to the participants any off-label or experimental uses of a commercial product or service discussed in my presentation.

See more of: Epidemiology Methods Poster Session
See more of: Epidemiology