A Model of Addiction, Resilience and Adaptability among Adolescents

As a national health concern, various smoking reduction policies have been in place that range from restrictions and bans on smoking in public places, raising cigarette prices, and educational/advocacy initiatives. Given findings that suggest a connection between early take-up and long term dependence, policies targeting adolescent smoking reduction have become a priority. Higher price elasticities of demand among adolescents may not be a great predictor of longer term dependence, and recent findings conclude that the consequential emphasis on price as a policy incentive to postpone take-up among adolescence is not target efficient. In other words, they are not reaching adolescents at-risk of longer-term dependence. Based on that research, we develop a model of risky behavior among adolescents that accounts for peer and family effects, as well as individual resiliency, to identify factors that place adolescents at risk for smoking addiction. Specifically, we test for state dependence verses heterogeneity by constructing indices of resilience that we incorporate into our model. Empirical estimation of our model using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health identified resiliency as an important source of individual heterogeneity in predicting smoking addiction. Adolescents with similar peer, family and demographic characteristics may differ in their ability to cope or in how they react and consequently in the risky behavioral outcome we observe. Our findings suggest that interventions aimed at improving resiliency would lead to improved behavioral outcomes. Ideally these interventions would take place in middle school where the probability of the initiation of smoking is greatest.