Long-term Health and Economic Impact of Preventing and Reducing Overweight and Obesity in Adolescence

Background: Using data from various sources, this study projected the long-term health and economic impacts of preventing and reducing overweight and obesity in today's adolescents.

Methods: We developed a BMI progression model to project the impact of a 1% reduction in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among youth at age 16/17 years on the number of non-overweight, overweight, and obese adults at age 40 years. We then estimated its impact on the lifetime medical costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after age 40. Medical costs and QALYs were discounted to age 17 years.

Results: With the 1% hypothetical prevalence reduction among a total of 8.1 million adolescents age 16/17 years, the number of obese adults at age 40 years would drop by 53,020 and the number of overweight adults and non-overweight adults would increase by 26,768 and 26,251 respectively. As a result, lifetime medical care costs after age 40 years would reduce by $470.1 million and lifetime QALYs after age 40 years would increase by 61,264. In the worst case scenario, the 1% prevalence reduction would reduce medical costs by $282 million and increase QALYs by 47,372, and in the best case scenario, it would reduce medical costs by $644 million and increase QALYs by 72,885.

Conclusion: This study offers insight into the relationship between the short-term success of obesity prevention programs for adolescents and the potential long-term benefits of those programs. Using the projected long-term benefits, researchers can further conduct cost-effectiveness analysis of obesity prevention interventions.