Vulnerability of local restorative environments to global environmental change

In 2006, 12.3 million people visited one of seven California State Beaches and Parks in the Orange Coast District (OCDSBP). According to the most recent California State Parks survey, more than two-thirds of visitors to state parks reported participating in at least one of the following activities: walking for fitness/fun; driving for pleasure/sightseeing; visiting historic/cultural sites and events; beach activities; surf play; visiting outdoor nature museums, zoos, or arboretums; picnicking; wildlife viewing; and trail hiking. Such park visitation reputably offers considerable health benefits with respect to psychological restoration and physical activity participation. There has been a paucity of research on the vulnerability of such park experience, utilization, and visitation to natural phenomena such as climate change.

The California Climate Change Center (CCCC) predicts up to 75cm of sea level rise (SLR) and at least a ten-fold increase in coastal flooding by 2070. They project a 2-4 time increase in heat wave days and 25-85% increase in days conducive to ozone formation. With approximately 17 miles of beach and 6,000 acres of coastal scrub canyons, I hypothesize OCDSBPs, and the experiences and activities afforded within, are at significant risk to these consequences of climate change.

I have initiated a GIS-based climate change vulnerability assessment within the seven beaches. Preliminary data suggests upward of 30% of sandy beach area may be lost due to SLR and over 50% of one park submerged during coastal flooding. In addition, I am employing weekly surveys within three OCDSBPs quantifying visitor use, experience, and environmental perception.