Predicting Infant Mortality Rates in Mississippi Based on Grey Models

Grey forecasting model, rooted in Deng's grey system theory, was employed to study infant mortality trends and related risk factors in the State of Mississippi. Infant mortality rate (IMR) is a measure of population health which is derived from the number of newborns dying under one year of age divided by the number of live births during that year. It is a useful indicator of a country's level of development, and is also known as a symptom of state failure. After years of progress, infant mortality rates in Mississippi and neighboring states have started to increase. Data focusing on IMRs, teenage pregnancy rates, and neonatal mortality rates were gathered from Mississippi State Department of Health vital statistics between 1999 and 2005. Thus, the purpose of the study was to gain an in-depth understanding of infant mortality trends. Accurate assessment in identifying trends is essential in preventing an increase of infant mortality. The prediction results demonstrated that grey models outperformed the benchmarking methods, i.e., exponential smoothing models. They yielded exceptional accuracy: 2.57% and 3.68% of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for white and nonwhite IMRs, and 1.89% and 2.27% of MAPE for white and nonwhite teenage pregnancy rates. In years 2006, 2007, and 2008, IMR for whites presented a decreasing tendency while IMR for nonwhites exhibited a monotonically increasing trend. The empirical findings suggested that the infant mortality disparities will continue to exist in the foreseeable future if no effective intervention is taken.