Polarization of abortion opinions in Mexico

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: In Mexico, restrictive abortion laws do not reflect the reality of abortion practices. Mexico City allows elective abortion during the first trimester, while the other 31 states generally allow it only in cases of rape or when the woman's life is in danger. Despite these restrictive laws, estimates of abortions performed each year range from 297,000 to 750,000. This paper aims to investigate whether opinions regarding abortion polarized over the six-year period immediately prior to liberalization of abortion laws in Mexico City.

STUDY DESIGN: In 2000 and 2006, an international, nongovernmental organization, conducted nationally representative surveys of the Mexican population to obtain information about knowledge and opinions on abortion. We hypothesize that there will be increased polarization over the time period studied due to increased media attention of the issue, legislative changes, and attention brought to the issue during presidential elections.

ANALYSIS: We summarize and compare support for a woman's right to abortion at both points in time and perform multivariate analysis using appropriate statistical models to determine whether opinions on abortion have polarized over time and across the 31 states in Mexico and the federal district.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Unsafe abortion is a leading cause of maternal morbidity in Mexico, causing 6.7 of every 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 to be hospitalized from complications each year. Policy addressing this public health issue can be informed by rigorous public opinion polls.