Peak oil and decreasing agricultural outputs: Exposing an impending public health crisis

Since the green revolution of the mid-20th century, agricultural production has come to rely heavily upon petroleum-based fertilizers. Similarly, our increasingly globalized food system depends upon cheap oil for food distribution. A growing number of researchers believe that worldwide oil production has already hit its peak and will continue to decline in coming years, while demand for oil will increase, especially as economies in developing countries grow. The quadrupling of oil prices in the last five years has contributed to a dramatic increase the price of staple crops such as corn, wheat, and rice. Although current agricultural outputs may be sufficient to feed the world's population, over 800 million people are malnourished partially due to political, economic, and physical challenges to food distribution, which will all be exacerbated by rising oil prices. Agricultural outputs may fall in the coming years due to scarcity of petrochemical fertilizers and oil to run farm machinery, increasingly compromised soil and water quality, and the rising incidence of extreme climactic events. Thus far, the field of public health has failed to recognize and plan for the agricultural crisis that the convergence of a major oil shortage, climate change, and natural resource degradation may produce. A model will be presented that outlines the sequential consequences that decreasing oil supply, coupled with rising prices, will have on agricultural outputs, hunger, and global public health. Policy-based solutions to this potential public health crisis will be presented.