Using Substantive Predictors to Target Segmented Adolescents in At-Risk of Smoking

Health and communication researchers have studied tobacco-related risks and behaviors, and associated variables. Some of their studies have produced consistent findings, while others have produced inconsistent and complex findings, especially after 1998 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). To address these problems, this study used a common set of comparable samples, a common set of variables, and a common set of measurement techniques that are found in the 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2004 National Youth Tobacco Surveys.

This study found that youth susceptibility to smoking has not declined since the MSA. By comparison, this study reported that lifetime smoking and current smoking have declined, though the longitudinal effect size measures (Person's Contingency Coefficient & Odds-Ratio) for these changes are minimal. The study pointed to the utility of measures documenting peer (best friends) smoking and receptivity to pro-tobacco promotions as predictors of adolescent susceptibility to smoking using the cross tabulation and logistic regression analysis techniques. Favorable attitude toward smoking/smokers was somewhat less consistent positive predictors of smoking susceptibility. The results further confirmed that age, peer smoking, and receptivity to pro-tobacco promotions are substantive, positive predictors of lifetime smoking and current smoking. A TwoStep cluster analysis produced two adolescent audience segments reflecting tobacco-related risks and one non-risk group. The first cluster represented household smoking and receptivity to pro-tobacco promotions risks and the second cluster represented peer smoking and favorable attitudes toward smoking/smokers risks.

This study also included some recommendations focusing on identifying the anti-tobacco campaign components that have been successful following the MSA.