Oral

In this session key statistical issues in the prediction of climate change will be articulated and debated by renowned statisticians actively involved in climate change science. The session features experts in statistical modeling of climate predictions who have been recognized by the US Congress and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as key statisticians engaged in improving statistical applications to climate change science. Speakers will discuss the Wegman Report to the US Congress that identified statistical “flaws” associated with climate predictions featured in the IPCC report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, list and evaluate statistical solutions to correct these analyses, and discuss the importance of engaging statisticians in climate change science.

Session Objectives: 1. Describe statistical methods used in the prediction of climate change 2. Discuss criticisms of the statistical methods used in climate predictions, in particular, key issues identified in the Wegman Report to the US Congress such as the “Hockey Stick” argument 3. Recognize the importance of engaging statisticians early in climate science research and evaluate the role of statisticians in environmental science, particularly applied to climate change.