Role of Behavioral Intentions on Future Substance Use in Adolescents

Adolescent substance use is an important public health issue. This study examined the extent to which early intentions predicted later alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana use among a sample of 601 early adolescents (78% African-American, 52% male). Participants were interviewed on two occasions approximately 16 months apart. Adolescents reported on their past use of and current intentions to use alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana. Intentions were coded as being either high-risk or low-risk. At wave one, 8% of participants had high-risk intentions to use tobacco and 17% had high-risk intentions to use alcohol within the next 12 months; 16% had high-risk intentions to use tobacco and 6% had high-risk intentions to use marijuana in adulthood. Intentions predicted use differently across substances. Controlling for current use, minority status, gender and family income, logistical regressions revealed that intentions to use tobacco as an adult (but not intentions to use tobacco in the next 12 months) was a significant predictor of tobacco use at wave two ( &Chi² = 5.21, p < .05 vs. &Chi² = 3.55, p = NS). Intentions to use alcohol within the next 12 months was a significant predictor of later alcohol use (&Chi² =13.30, p < .01). Intentions to use marijuana in adulthood were not related to subsequent marijuana use (&Chi² = .39, p = NS). High-risk intentions to use tobacco and alcohol in early adolescence may play a causal role in early initiation of substance use and should be targeted with preventive interventions.