International Food Insecurity Before the 2008-2010 'Silent Tsunami:' A Case Study of Food Production Deficits and Nutritional Analyses during the World War II Era

The United Nations, the IMF, Chatham House, and other international bodies are warning that the world faces a continuing massive food supply shortfall in the immediate future. Global warming, droughts, and other water scarcity problems linked to international border management issues caused food supplies to drop and prices to increase sharply in 2008. This 'silent tsunami' of food shortages in some regions and rising prices of basic food commodities elsewhere triggered riots in North African and South Asia, and direct food aid appeals by 30 sub-Saharan countries. As market pressures continue to regulate prices in water- and credit-scarce environments, the UN World Food Program estimates that up to 960m more people will suffer undernourishment during the coming year.

During the 1944-47 food supply crash, government-controlled pricing and distribution mechanisms were used. The crisis persisted year-on-year amid war and population dislocations, causing severe nutritional consequences from China to the Sudan to Canada. In some countries, like Britain, reliance upon price mechanisms was replaced by import/export restrictions and targeted rationing to maintain basic nutritional standards. Now, with the global credit crisis, governments are considering use of their newly-acquired controls over banks, gained by purchasing banks' debts and ownership shares, to address the food crisis. This leverage, plus IMF and UN guidance, can funnel credit toward increased food production and equitable distribution, displacing market signals with goal-driven government public health and food policy directives, such as those used in Britain in the World War II era.