If you ask them, will they come? Predictors of quarantine compliance during a hypothetical avian flu epidemic: Results from a statewide probability survey

A possible influenza pandemic raises questions about how to respond effectively, with plans focusing on minimizing impact by containing the virus through quarantine. But quarantine has not been used widely in the US for decades and little is known about what the public's response would be should quarantine orders be issued. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors that influence an individual's decision to comply with a quarantine order, using avian flu as the hypothetical epidemic. A RDD phone sample of 1204 Pennsylvania adult residents were interviewed about their attitudes and knowledge of avian flu as well as about possible quarantine compliance, including staying at home or going to a government designated facility. ANOVA showed differences among demographic groups in willingness to comply to quarantine orders, with women and those not currently working more willing to voluntarily stay home in an epidemic and more willing to go to a government facility if ordered. Those who did not regularly attend religious services were significantly less willing to comply with any type of quarantine order. Regression analysis indicated that demographic variables, as well as overall knowledge of Avian Flu, attitudes about its severity, and the belief that the respondent or his/her significant others might get it, significantly predicted all quarantine variables. These results can provide health planners and policy makers with important information for improving their efforts to enact quarantine successfully, including crafting messages and targeting information to certain groups of people to communicate risk about the epidemic.